AUSTIN — Polls show that Texas Republicans support so-called privacy legislation to govern where members of the transgender community use the restroom.

But business leaders, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender groups, as well as religious allies began fighting back even before the special session began on Tuesday with conference calls and public appearances to oppose legislation that would keep transgender people from using facilities that don’t match their “biological” sex.

“Discriminatory legislation like the so-called bathroom bill is harmful to business,” said Phil Gilbert, general manager of IBM Design, speaking at the Capitol on Monday, where he was joined by other business and tech leaders who oppose such proposals. “A bathroom bill that targets the LGBT community hurts our ability to recruit and retain talent in Texas.”

Legislation that would have linked restroom use to the gender on a person’s birth certificate failed to pass during the regular session, and the question for the special session is whether House Speaker Joe Straus can again shut down one of Lt. Gov Dan Patrick’s signature initiatives. 

“Anybody who votes ‘no,’ who opposes the bathroom legislation in the House, can assume they’ll get a primary opponent — or three or four — to their right,” said Bee Moorhead, executive director of Texas Impact, a statewide interfaith advocacy network. 

That’s the last thing moderate Republicans want.

“I suspect that most of the Republicans are worried enough about the primary elections that they’d be willing to support some version of a bathroom bill,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist who authored “Inside Texas Politics.”  

State Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, a Straus ally who chairs the House State Affairs Committee, has already drawn a primary opponent, Thomas McNutt.

McNutt narrowly lost a 2016 primary challenge to Cook, and said in an April statement announcing his candidacy that he would have “the same values and beliefs as the voters” in his district. 

“They got close last time,” Rottinghaus said. “I would say that he is one of the valuable members who could be at risk.”

As before, it’s Straus’ job to prevent moderate House Republicans who don’t want to risk possible fallout from having to vote on a bathroom bill.

When asked how important a “bathroom bill” is, a recent University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll showed that 44 percent of Texas voters consider a bathroom bill important.

Fifty seven percent of Republicans, counting both tea party supporters and those who are not, said a bill is important; 70 percent of tea party Republicans said it was important. 

Bexar County’s Republican Party recently handed Straus, who’s from San Antonio, a no-confidence resolution, saying “there should be a change in leadership in the Texas House speakership due to the non-support of the Republican Party of Texas platform by the current incumbent.”

But for now, he’s in charge.

Moorhead was at the Capitol on Tuesday, and said she expects what will likely be a party-line Senate vote on a bathroom bill in short order. 

“The whole thing is what’s going to happen in the House,” Moorhead said. “I doubt they want to do anything that will hurt the state economy.

“They’re conflicted. They know they have a lot of constituents who oppose this legislation.”

In a statement, Jonathan Saenz, president of the nonprofit organization Texas Values, said he was optimistic about passing a bathroom bill.

“This special session’s legislation will defend business freedom, the dignity of our school children, and preserve ‘safe spaces’ for our most vulnerable,” Saenz said. 

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones was skeptical, saying that there will be negative economic consequences if a bathroom bill passes.

“Straus will not let this bill reach the floor,” even though he’ll have to expend political capital in the effort that could otherwise go to different issues, Jones said. “Joe Straus will save everyone’s bacon.”

John Austin covers the Texas Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach him at jaustin@cnhi.com.